Thanks for doing this AMA! In case you still might answer questions, I’m curious as to how much value you think there’d be in:
further research into forecasting techniques
improving existing forecasting tools and platforms
developing better tools and platforms
E.g., if someone asked you for advice on whether to do work in academia similar to Tetlock’s work, or build things like Metaculus or calibration games, or do something else EAs often think is valuable, what might you say?
Thanks for doing this AMA! In case you still might answer questions, I’m curious as to how much value you think there’d be in:
further research into forecasting techniques
improving existing forecasting tools and platforms
developing better tools and platforms
E.g., if someone asked you for advice on whether to do work in academia similar to Tetlock’s work, or build things like Metaculus or calibration games, or do something else EAs often think is valuable, what might you say?
(I ask in part because you wrote about judgemental forecasting being “very much a nascent, pre-paradigm field”.)