When I look at most forecasting questions, they seem goodharty in a very strong sense. For example, the goodhart tower for COVID might look something like:
1. How hard should I quarantine?
2. How hard I should quarantine is affected by how “bad” COVID will be.
3. How “bad” COVID should be caches out into something like “how many people”, “when vaccine coming”, “what is death rate”, etc.
By the time something I care about becomes specific enough to be predictable/forecastable, it seems like most of the thing I actually cared about has been lost.
Do you have a sense of how questions can be better constructed to lose less of the thing that might have inspired the question?
When I look at most forecasting questions, they seem goodharty in a very strong sense. For example, the goodhart tower for COVID might look something like:
1. How hard should I quarantine?
2. How hard I should quarantine is affected by how “bad” COVID will be.
3. How “bad” COVID should be caches out into something like “how many people”, “when vaccine coming”, “what is death rate”, etc.
By the time something I care about becomes specific enough to be predictable/forecastable, it seems like most of the thing I actually cared about has been lost.
Do you have a sense of how questions can be better constructed to lose less of the thing that might have inspired the question?