Is forecasting plausibly a high-value use of one’s time if one is a top-5% or top-1% forecaster?
Yes, it’s plausible.
What are the most important/valuable questions or forecasting tournaments for top forecasters to forecast or participate in?
My sense is that right now there’s a market mismatch with an oversupply of high forecasting talent relative to direct demand/actual willingness/ability to use said talent. I’m not sure why this is, intuitively there are so many things in the world where having a higher-precision understanding of our uncertainty is just extremely helpful.
One thing I’d love to do is help figure out how to solve this and find lots of really useful things for people to forecast on.
Yes, it’s plausible.
My sense is that right now there’s a market mismatch with an oversupply of high forecasting talent relative to direct demand/actual willingness/ability to use said talent. I’m not sure why this is, intuitively there are so many things in the world where having a higher-precision understanding of our uncertainty is just extremely helpful.
One thing I’d love to do is help figure out how to solve this and find lots of really useful things for people to forecast on.