I think that as you forecast different domains, more common themes can start to emerge. And I certainly find that my calibration is off when I feel personally invested in the answer.
And re:
How does the distribution skill / hours of effort look for forecasting for you?
I would say there’s a sharp cutoff in terms of needing a minimal level of understanding (which seems to be fairly high, but certainly isn’t above, say, the 10th percentile.) After that, it’s mostly effort, and skill that is gained via feedback.
I think that as you forecast different domains, more common themes can start to emerge. And I certainly find that my calibration is off when I feel personally invested in the answer.
And re:
I would say there’s a sharp cutoff in terms of needing a minimal level of understanding (which seems to be fairly high, but certainly isn’t above, say, the 10th percentile.) After that, it’s mostly effort, and skill that is gained via feedback.