It would be great if there was a better prediction market version of this question, unfortunately others I found are even worse.
Yet, I don’t think it’s worth dismissing entirely.
If criteria are stricter now, this should mean that an increase in the probability between November and today is underestimated by this question.
It would be great if there was a better prediction market version of this question, unfortunately others I found are even worse.
Yet, I don’t think it’s worth dismissing entirely.
If criteria are stricter now, this should mean that an increase in the probability between November and today is underestimated by this question.