This seems like one of many Manifold markets with terrible resolution criteria. Wikipedia is not an oracle; it is a website run by Trump’s political opponents, who are willing to use skullduggery to promote their political agendas. Even just looking at this page, it is a bizarre collection of events. It includes things like this:
Inclusion of this sort of event suggests a very low bar for what constitutes a crisis. But then many objectively much more major events are simply totally omitted!
I can see why the market is trading above 50% - you can just look at the talk page to see people are leaning this way. Arguably this market should have already closed, because the wikipedia page did list it for a while (there was weasel language, but it clearly was ‘listed’, which was the resolution criteria), prior to the market’s rules being [clarified/changed] to include a vague appeal to ‘broader consensus’. But I think this mainly tells us about wikipedia, rather than about reality.
This seems like one of many Manifold markets with terrible resolution criteria. Wikipedia is not an oracle; it is a website run by Trump’s political opponents, who are willing to use skullduggery to promote their political agendas. Even just looking at this page, it is a bizarre collection of events. It includes things like this:
Inclusion of this sort of event suggests a very low bar for what constitutes a crisis. But then many objectively much more major events are simply totally omitted!
I can see why the market is trading above 50% - you can just look at the talk page to see people are leaning this way. Arguably this market should have already closed, because the wikipedia page did list it for a while (there was weasel language, but it clearly was ‘listed’, which was the resolution criteria), prior to the market’s rules being [clarified/changed] to include a vague appeal to ‘broader consensus’. But I think this mainly tells us about wikipedia, rather than about reality.
Some people are, but I’d say that the overall vibe of that thread is leaning against until at least when it stops being a live issue
It would be great if there was a better prediction market version of this question, unfortunately others I found are even worse.
Yet, I don’t think it’s worth dismissing entirely.
If criteria are stricter now, this should mean that an increase in the probability between November and today is underestimated by this question.