I think you give too much credit to the strength of US institutions and their ability to resist an authoritarian power grab by the Trump administration. While the Constitution wisely set up checks and balances to make such consolidation of power very difficult, the two parties have been gaming the system for decades with the overall effect of concentrating more power in the executive branch over time. Consider that the President controls the extensive spying apparatus of the NSA and other intelligence agencies; significant regulatory authority over the conduct of commerce; and a large degree of influence over what information is fed the press, which has drastically reduced capacity to undertake independent reporting compared to a few decades ago. Under divided government, as was the case for most of President Obama’s term, these powers can only take one so far; however, Trump will have both houses of Congress ostensibly aligned with him for at least the next two and likely the next four years. Although virtually none of the media establishment in the US is directly controlled by the government, Matt Yglesias has written about how Trump could use his regulatory powers to exert indirect influence over the corporate owners of the major media companies that report on the administration’s activities. Twisting the US in an authoritarian direction won’t happen overnight and would take a determined effort that it’s not clear Trump has the patience for, but our institutions are most definitely vulnerable in the face of a combined and strategic deployment of the resources available to him. For example, what if the Supreme Court rules against him and he just refuses to honor the order? If Congress and the military are behind him, there’s nothing anyone can really do. Furthermore, even if Trump doesn’t end up installing an authoritarian regime in the US, he could make it much easier for someone else to do so in the future by breaking down a whole bunch of the norms and unwritten rules that have held the system together.
Regarding control of Congress in 2018-20, it’s important to note that the Democrats will be defending 25 seats in 2018 compared to Republicans’ 8. It would be shocking if Democrats are able to flip either house of Congress in 2018. This makes engagement with Republicans who opposed Trump much more important, in my view. And in my circles, I am seeing very little attention devoted to this, so it seems fairly neglected for now. A big reason why Obama wasn’t able to achieve more of his policy agenda during his presidency was because during the time that he had a filibuster-proof majority, the most conservative Democratic senators (particularly Ben Nelson) used the power of their single vote to extract enormous concessions. Just a few Republicans have the same power now, if they choose to use it.
Sticking with the Senate, don’t forget that the filibuster is not enshrined in the Constitution. The Senate has the power to change the rules regarding the filibuster at the beginning of each two-year session. There is reason to think it may not be long for this world. If Republicans get rid of the filibuster in order to help Trump, we are in big trouble. This is another instance where putting pressure on just a few Senators can make a huge impact.
Conservatives were able to get to the place where they are because they built a grassroots movement over time that touched every level of government. Progressives, by contrast, have been overly focused on Presidential and Senate elections. State and local elections are extraordinarily neglected as a political cause. Each one does not have a lot of impact on its own, but cumulatively the impact is enormous. Right now, Democrats control only 13 of 50 state legislatures, which is barely enough to fight back against the passage of a constitutional amendment. Republicans have one-party control of government in fully half of the 50 states. Among other things, state governments in the 2018-2020 session will draw the Congressional district maps that will help determine control of Congress for the next decade. One of the reasons why Democrats have had so much trouble winning back the House is because Republicans were largely in charge of that districting process ten years ago. If one wants to help Democrats and progressives, state and local elections, followed by House contests, are where it’s at.
On a similar note, it’s important to remember that elected officials listen most of all to their own constituents, rather than outsiders. One of the big problems in American society that has led to this result is the social and geographic segregation that has concentrated huge numbers of progressive voters in big cities and blue states where their political influence is limited. A very difficult but important thing to work on will be how to shift attitudes among people who have limited exposure to and little trust of this “other side” of America, as these people have proportionally more political influence in this environment. I am not sure of the right strategy here, but I note that attitudes toward gay marriage shifted very rapidly in the US over a ten-year period, so there is precedent.
Despite my critiques above, I really appreciate you taking the time to write this up—it’s an important contribution. Hopefully we will collectively be able to build on it.
A few notes:
I think you give too much credit to the strength of US institutions and their ability to resist an authoritarian power grab by the Trump administration. While the Constitution wisely set up checks and balances to make such consolidation of power very difficult, the two parties have been gaming the system for decades with the overall effect of concentrating more power in the executive branch over time. Consider that the President controls the extensive spying apparatus of the NSA and other intelligence agencies; significant regulatory authority over the conduct of commerce; and a large degree of influence over what information is fed the press, which has drastically reduced capacity to undertake independent reporting compared to a few decades ago. Under divided government, as was the case for most of President Obama’s term, these powers can only take one so far; however, Trump will have both houses of Congress ostensibly aligned with him for at least the next two and likely the next four years. Although virtually none of the media establishment in the US is directly controlled by the government, Matt Yglesias has written about how Trump could use his regulatory powers to exert indirect influence over the corporate owners of the major media companies that report on the administration’s activities. Twisting the US in an authoritarian direction won’t happen overnight and would take a determined effort that it’s not clear Trump has the patience for, but our institutions are most definitely vulnerable in the face of a combined and strategic deployment of the resources available to him. For example, what if the Supreme Court rules against him and he just refuses to honor the order? If Congress and the military are behind him, there’s nothing anyone can really do. Furthermore, even if Trump doesn’t end up installing an authoritarian regime in the US, he could make it much easier for someone else to do so in the future by breaking down a whole bunch of the norms and unwritten rules that have held the system together.
Regarding control of Congress in 2018-20, it’s important to note that the Democrats will be defending 25 seats in 2018 compared to Republicans’ 8. It would be shocking if Democrats are able to flip either house of Congress in 2018. This makes engagement with Republicans who opposed Trump much more important, in my view. And in my circles, I am seeing very little attention devoted to this, so it seems fairly neglected for now. A big reason why Obama wasn’t able to achieve more of his policy agenda during his presidency was because during the time that he had a filibuster-proof majority, the most conservative Democratic senators (particularly Ben Nelson) used the power of their single vote to extract enormous concessions. Just a few Republicans have the same power now, if they choose to use it.
Sticking with the Senate, don’t forget that the filibuster is not enshrined in the Constitution. The Senate has the power to change the rules regarding the filibuster at the beginning of each two-year session. There is reason to think it may not be long for this world. If Republicans get rid of the filibuster in order to help Trump, we are in big trouble. This is another instance where putting pressure on just a few Senators can make a huge impact.
Conservatives were able to get to the place where they are because they built a grassroots movement over time that touched every level of government. Progressives, by contrast, have been overly focused on Presidential and Senate elections. State and local elections are extraordinarily neglected as a political cause. Each one does not have a lot of impact on its own, but cumulatively the impact is enormous. Right now, Democrats control only 13 of 50 state legislatures, which is barely enough to fight back against the passage of a constitutional amendment. Republicans have one-party control of government in fully half of the 50 states. Among other things, state governments in the 2018-2020 session will draw the Congressional district maps that will help determine control of Congress for the next decade. One of the reasons why Democrats have had so much trouble winning back the House is because Republicans were largely in charge of that districting process ten years ago. If one wants to help Democrats and progressives, state and local elections, followed by House contests, are where it’s at.
On a similar note, it’s important to remember that elected officials listen most of all to their own constituents, rather than outsiders. One of the big problems in American society that has led to this result is the social and geographic segregation that has concentrated huge numbers of progressive voters in big cities and blue states where their political influence is limited. A very difficult but important thing to work on will be how to shift attitudes among people who have limited exposure to and little trust of this “other side” of America, as these people have proportionally more political influence in this environment. I am not sure of the right strategy here, but I note that attitudes toward gay marriage shifted very rapidly in the US over a ten-year period, so there is precedent.
Despite my critiques above, I really appreciate you taking the time to write this up—it’s an important contribution. Hopefully we will collectively be able to build on it.