1) I was aware of this podcast, and actually contemplated not posting because the superficial similarity between the topics might be a problem. First of all Lewis’ criticism is not just slightly different, it’s all about EA’s discussion of cloth masks. About medical masks, which this post is about, he specifically says “medical masks are pretty good for the general population which I’ll just about lean in favor of, although all of these things are uncertain.”. Furthermore I am uncertain whether one very recent expert’s opinion should promote a huge shift in EA’s consensus on this topic.
I see your point, yet still think the central argument and the other points I made still stand. I also think there are more than superficial similarities between what you suggest and what Greg criticizes, but not because both proposals are about masks, but rather because both proposals are hobbyists ideas for an intervention of dubious effectiveness.
I agree with Hauke, as well as being quite unlikely that hobbyist will have better ideas and recommendations than groups of public health experts. These specific ideas also have clear potential to cause harm through taking away PPE from those that most need it, and plausibly causing an increase in transmission through touching inside of masks and risk aversion behaviour. Even ideas that would have small expected EV in transmission, have the potential to cause harm overall in expectation as they could diminish trust of future public health pronouncements.
1) I was aware of this podcast, and actually contemplated not posting because the superficial similarity between the topics might be a problem. First of all Lewis’ criticism is not just slightly different, it’s all about EA’s discussion of cloth masks. About medical masks, which this post is about, he specifically says “medical masks are pretty good for the general population which I’ll just about lean in favor of, although all of these things are uncertain.”. Furthermore I am uncertain whether one very recent expert’s opinion should promote a huge shift in EA’s consensus on this topic.
I see your point, yet still think the central argument and the other points I made still stand. I also think there are more than superficial similarities between what you suggest and what Greg criticizes, but not because both proposals are about masks, but rather because both proposals are hobbyists ideas for an intervention of dubious effectiveness.
I agree with Hauke, as well as being quite unlikely that hobbyist will have better ideas and recommendations than groups of public health experts. These specific ideas also have clear potential to cause harm through taking away PPE from those that most need it, and plausibly causing an increase in transmission through touching inside of masks and risk aversion behaviour. Even ideas that would have small expected EV in transmission, have the potential to cause harm overall in expectation as they could diminish trust of future public health pronouncements.