I think its an interesting question with many ways to estimate this value, looking at the market alone is one way but not definited. Perhaps some of them off the top of my head are
- WHO has used GDP per capita per year as a reasonable amount to spend to avert 1 DALY, so then perhaps 60x GDP per capita would work. In the USA this would be about 60 x 80k which is about 5 million for a life - Look at what Government health systems are willing to spend on averting a DALY. In the UK NICE will spend something like 50kUS for a year of life, so that’s more like 3 million for a life - You can ask people how much they think a life is worth to them. Not sure of the data there but GiveWell has done this pretty extensively. - Then there are somewhat random US state department things like the 10 million cited above
Awkwardly many of these methods come up with different amounts in different countries depending on GDP and willingness to pay. This is important I think, as I don’t think we can just use huge numbers like 10 million from the Richest countries, when that’s not a practical reality for most of the world. A better approach might be to do something like divide by global GDP per capita (about 1/6th of the US) which would get us more n the 1.5-2 million realm per life at the upper end of estimations, and a lot lower (who knows) at the lower end....
I think its an interesting question with many ways to estimate this value, looking at the market alone is one way but not definited. Perhaps some of them off the top of my head are
- WHO has used GDP per capita per year as a reasonable amount to spend to avert 1 DALY, so then perhaps 60x GDP per capita would work. In the USA this would be about 60 x 80k which is about 5 million for a life
- Look at what Government health systems are willing to spend on averting a DALY. In the UK NICE will spend something like 50kUS for a year of life, so that’s more like 3 million for a life
- You can ask people how much they think a life is worth to them. Not sure of the data there but GiveWell has done this pretty extensively.
- Then there are somewhat random US state department things like the 10 million cited above
Awkwardly many of these methods come up with different amounts in different countries depending on GDP and willingness to pay. This is important I think, as I don’t think we can just use huge numbers like 10 million from the Richest countries, when that’s not a practical reality for most of the world. A better approach might be to do something like divide by global GDP per capita (about 1/6th of the US) which would get us more n the 1.5-2 million realm per life at the upper end of estimations, and a lot lower (who knows) at the lower end....