I think it’s easy to gaslight yourself and think you actually might have done something seriously wrong without knowing.
True. What’s unfortunate is that the type of person who knowingly does inappropriate things (without any sense of remorse) is guaranteed to use what you say as a phony excuse. I’m not alleging that the sentiment expressed in the apology was knowingly insincere; I’m merely pointing out that this gives you zero Bayesian evidence to distinguish two very different kinds of situations.
The fact that CEA has not taken steps to clear up the ambiguities (as other commenters have pointed out) is some evidence in favor of the hypothesis that “today’s climate makes things look worse than they are”. But there are plausible alternatives for why CEA isn’t commenting on that.
If you wanted to write an apology that assures CEA that things were concluding properly, while also trying to preserve the maximum of plausible deniability for any morally (more) serious allegations, how would you write it when the truth is in fact relatively benign? And how would you write it when the truth was not so benign?
Okay, sorry for pressing the point. In my view this didn’t quite address what I wanted to say but did not say well. You say A, I argue that it’s either B or C, then you say we don’t know whether it’s B or C. Fine with me! What I wanted to convey is that we should at least point out that C is a serious option, and I think the EA community could become less naive with these things because that’s what creates an environment where sneakiness doesn’t work anymore. The way I meant this, B or C are not about what the truth is, but what Jacy’s approach to facing allegations is. And I agree with your other comment that it could be either option.
I’m not sure what you mean by A, B, and C. Just to be clear, all I’m saying is that the only thing that this apology has ruled out is “Jacy vehemently denies any possibility of wrongdoing and would not cooperate with CEA’s decision regarding him.” Other than that, I feel it is compatible with most scenarios of his guilt/innocence and of his reaction to being accused.
The question is about probabilities of guilt/innocence. If you have multiple people accuse you of sexual or non-sexual harassment over the course of at least 7 years in different communities, then you are either extremely unlucky or you have actually harassed people. He also admits guilt
True. What’s unfortunate is that the type of person who knowingly does inappropriate things (without any sense of remorse) is guaranteed to use what you say as a phony excuse. I’m not alleging that the sentiment expressed in the apology was knowingly insincere; I’m merely pointing out that this gives you zero Bayesian evidence to distinguish two very different kinds of situations.
The fact that CEA has not taken steps to clear up the ambiguities (as other commenters have pointed out) is some evidence in favor of the hypothesis that “today’s climate makes things look worse than they are”. But there are plausible alternatives for why CEA isn’t commenting on that.
If you wanted to write an apology that assures CEA that things were concluding properly, while also trying to preserve the maximum of plausible deniability for any morally (more) serious allegations, how would you write it when the truth is in fact relatively benign? And how would you write it when the truth was not so benign?
I think we just don’t know and we’re probably not going to get any more blood out of this turnip.
Okay, sorry for pressing the point. In my view this didn’t quite address what I wanted to say but did not say well. You say A, I argue that it’s either B or C, then you say we don’t know whether it’s B or C. Fine with me! What I wanted to convey is that we should at least point out that C is a serious option, and I think the EA community could become less naive with these things because that’s what creates an environment where sneakiness doesn’t work anymore. The way I meant this, B or C are not about what the truth is, but what Jacy’s approach to facing allegations is. And I agree with your other comment that it could be either option.
I’m not sure what you mean by A, B, and C. Just to be clear, all I’m saying is that the only thing that this apology has ruled out is “Jacy vehemently denies any possibility of wrongdoing and would not cooperate with CEA’s decision regarding him.” Other than that, I feel it is compatible with most scenarios of his guilt/innocence and of his reaction to being accused.
The question is about probabilities of guilt/innocence. If you have multiple people accuse you of sexual or non-sexual harassment over the course of at least 7 years in different communities, then you are either extremely unlucky or you have actually harassed people. He also admits guilt
“I’m merely pointing out that this gives you zero Bayesian evidence to distinguish two very different kinds of situations.”
This is all I was trying to point out, too. We know he’s cooperating with CEA and accepting a reprimand. I think that’s all this apology tells us.
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