I think there are a ton of Transformative AI scenarios where not “everyone dies”. I think many AI Safety researchers are currently expecting less than a 40% chance of everyone dying.
I also really have a hard time imagining many financial traders actually seriously believing: 1. Transformative AI is likely to happen 2. It’s very likely to kill everyone, conditional on happening. (95%++)
Both of those are radical right now. You need to believe (1) to believe we’re likely doomed soon.
I haven’t seen any evidence of people with money seriously discussing (2).
I think there are a ton of Transformative AI scenarios where not “everyone dies”. I think many AI Safety researchers are currently expecting less than a 40% chance of everyone dying.
I also really have a hard time imagining many financial traders actually seriously believing:
1. Transformative AI is likely to happen
2. It’s very likely to kill everyone, conditional on happening. (95%++)
Both of those are radical right now. You need to believe (1) to believe we’re likely doomed soon.
I haven’t seen any evidence of people with money seriously discussing (2).