The reason sophisticated entities like e.g. hedge funds hold bonds isn’t so they can collect a cash flow 10 years from now. It’s because they think bond prices will go up tomorrow, or next year.
The big entities that hold bonds for the future cash flows are e.g. pension funds. It would be very surprising and (I think) borderline illegal if the pension funds ever started reasoning, “I guess I don’t need to worry about cash flows after 2045, since the world will probably end before then. So I’ll just hold shorter-term assets.”
I think this adds up to, no big investors can directly profit from the final outcome here. Though as everyone seems to agree, anyone could profit by being short bonds (or underweight bonds) while the market started to price in substantial probability of AGI.
The reason sophisticated entities like e.g. hedge funds hold bonds isn’t so they can collect a cash flow 10 years from now. It’s because they think bond prices will go up tomorrow, or next year.
The big entities that hold bonds for the future cash flows are e.g. pension funds. It would be very surprising and (I think) borderline illegal if the pension funds ever started reasoning, “I guess I don’t need to worry about cash flows after 2045, since the world will probably end before then. So I’ll just hold shorter-term assets.”
I think this adds up to, no big investors can directly profit from the final outcome here. Though as everyone seems to agree, anyone could profit by being short bonds (or underweight bonds) while the market started to price in substantial probability of AGI.