It might be challenging to borrow (though I’m not sure), but there seem to be plenty of sophisticated entities that should be selling off their bonds and aren’t. The top-level comment does cut into the gains from shorting (as the OP concedes), but I think it’s right that there are borrowing-esque things to do.
The reason sophisticated entities like e.g. hedge funds hold bonds isn’t so they can collect a cash flow 10 years from now. It’s because they think bond prices will go up tomorrow, or next year.
The big entities that hold bonds for the future cash flows are e.g. pension funds. It would be very surprising and (I think) borderline illegal if the pension funds ever started reasoning, “I guess I don’t need to worry about cash flows after 2045, since the world will probably end before then. So I’ll just hold shorter-term assets.”
I think this adds up to, no big investors can directly profit from the final outcome here. Though as everyone seems to agree, anyone could profit by being short bonds (or underweight bonds) while the market started to price in substantial probability of AGI.
If you’re in charge of investing decisions for a pension fund or sovereign wealth fund or similar, you likely can’t personally derive any benefit from having the fund sell off its bonds and other long-term assets now. You might do this in your personal account but the impact will be small.
For government bonds in particular it also seems relevant that I think most are held by entities that are effectively required to hold them for some reason (e.g. bank capital requirements, pension fund regulations) or otherwise oddly insensitive to their low ROI compared to alternatives. See also the “equity premium puzzle”.
It might be challenging to borrow (though I’m not sure), but there seem to be plenty of sophisticated entities that should be selling off their bonds and aren’t. The top-level comment does cut into the gains from shorting (as the OP concedes), but I think it’s right that there are borrowing-esque things to do.
The reason sophisticated entities like e.g. hedge funds hold bonds isn’t so they can collect a cash flow 10 years from now. It’s because they think bond prices will go up tomorrow, or next year.
The big entities that hold bonds for the future cash flows are e.g. pension funds. It would be very surprising and (I think) borderline illegal if the pension funds ever started reasoning, “I guess I don’t need to worry about cash flows after 2045, since the world will probably end before then. So I’ll just hold shorter-term assets.”
I think this adds up to, no big investors can directly profit from the final outcome here. Though as everyone seems to agree, anyone could profit by being short bonds (or underweight bonds) while the market started to price in substantial probability of AGI.
If you’re in charge of investing decisions for a pension fund or sovereign wealth fund or similar, you likely can’t personally derive any benefit from having the fund sell off its bonds and other long-term assets now. You might do this in your personal account but the impact will be small.
For government bonds in particular it also seems relevant that I think most are held by entities that are effectively required to hold them for some reason (e.g. bank capital requirements, pension fund regulations) or otherwise oddly insensitive to their low ROI compared to alternatives. See also the “equity premium puzzle”.