Yet the tweets you linked were from 2⁄16 and 2⁄17.
Rational expectations doesn’t mean “the alarmists are always right,” and EMH doesn’t imply that no one can profit helping correct the market.
The tweets you linked demonstrate the confusion at the time. Robin thought that China would be overwhelmed with COVID in a few months, while the rest of the world would be closing contact. In fact the rest of the world got overwhelmed with COVID and crashed their economies in just one month, while China contained it and kept its economy rolling for another two years. Rational expectations would’ve incorporated views like Robin’s, but not parroted them. A plateau from early January and crash on 2⁄20 isn’t inconsistent with that.
Numerous people on rationalityTwitter called it way before Feb 20th, and some of those bought put options and made big profits. This must be some interesting new take on “rational expectations”. https://twitter.com/ESYudkowsky/status/1229529150098046976?s=20&t=IGOl9Mzj1FYtcPYd1F52AQ
Yet the tweets you linked were from 2⁄16 and 2⁄17.
Rational expectations doesn’t mean “the alarmists are always right,” and EMH doesn’t imply that no one can profit helping correct the market.
The tweets you linked demonstrate the confusion at the time. Robin thought that China would be overwhelmed with COVID in a few months, while the rest of the world would be closing contact. In fact the rest of the world got overwhelmed with COVID and crashed their economies in just one month, while China contained it and kept its economy rolling for another two years. Rational expectations would’ve incorporated views like Robin’s, but not parroted them. A plateau from early January and crash on 2⁄20 isn’t inconsistent with that.