Okay; I guess I was confused by your question because I thought I’d said that in the main doc.
To repeat and with added explanation: Only opinions from before ChatGPT count.
This is because ChatGPT moved the Overton window and changed which sorts of opinions would earn you the horror of contemptuous looks and lowered status, and my negative model of OpenPhil is that they miraculously arrived at a set of opinions which would balance which sort of looks they got from a weighted set of people they cared about. So whatever happened after the ChatGPT Moment is no longer reflective of what I guess to be the organizational and cognitive processes underlying their earlier failure; and it’s fair to ask about this because the earlier stuff was consequential. (Though it didn’t move the needle as such; in retrospect and with benefit of hindsight, the needle started at “Dead” and stayed at “Dead” through everything MIRI or OpenPhil tried or failed at.)
While it is now possible to lose a lot of credit for having >30yr median timelines, it is no longer possible to earn significant credit for putting your timelines under 2055 because that is already what “the weighted average of facial expressions on people you care about” is telling you to believe and there are no big social penalties for believing it.
I got a one-time gift of appreciated crypto, not through MIRI, part of whose purpose as I understood it was to give me enough of a savings backstop (having in previous years been not paid very much at all) that I would feel freer to speak my mind or change my mind should the need arise.
I have of course already changed MIRI’s public mission sharply on two occasions, the first being when I realized in 2001 that alignment might need to be a thing, and said so to the primary financial supporter who’d previously supported MIRI (then SIAI) on the premise of charging straight ahead on AI capabilities; the second being in the early 2020s when I declared publicly that I did not think alignment technical work was going to complete in time and MIRI was mostly shifting over to warning the world of that rather than continuing to run workshops. Should I need to pivot a third time, history suggests that I would not be out of a job.