The argument here emphatically cannot be merely summarized as “AGI soon [is] a very contrarian position [and market prices are another indication of this]”.
Can you describe in concrete detail a possible world in which:
“AGI in 30 years” is a very contrarian position, including amongst hedge fund managers, bankers, billionaires, etc
Market prices indicate that we’ll get AGI in 30 years
It seems to me that if you were in such a situation, all of the non-contrarian hedge fund managers, bankers, billionaires would do the opposite of all of the trades that you’ve listed in this post, which would then push market prices back to rejecting “AGI in 30 years”; they have more money so their views dominate. What, concretely, prevents that from happening?
Can you describe in concrete detail a possible world in which:
“AGI in 30 years” is a very contrarian position, including amongst hedge fund managers, bankers, billionaires, etc
Market prices indicate that we’ll get AGI in 30 years
It seems to me that if you were in such a situation, all of the non-contrarian hedge fund managers, bankers, billionaires would do the opposite of all of the trades that you’ve listed in this post, which would then push market prices back to rejecting “AGI in 30 years”; they have more money so their views dominate. What, concretely, prevents that from happening?