Beyond just taking vacation days, if you’re a bond trader who believes in a very high chance of xrisk in the next five years it probably might make sense to quit your job and fund your consumption out of your retirement savings. At which point you aren’t a bond trader anymore and your beliefs no longer have much impact on bond prices.
Insofar as humans care about x-risk and act on this care, you’d expect bond traders to be people who either think x-risk is very low, think it’s high and think they have no nontrivial way to affect it, or think it’s high and think trading is their best way to affect it (e.g., through earning to give).
Beyond just taking vacation days, if you’re a bond trader who believes in a very high chance of xrisk in the next five years it
probablymight make sense to quit your job and fund your consumption out of your retirement savings. At which point you aren’t a bond trader anymore and your beliefs no longer have much impact on bond prices.Or leave your job to go try and reduce x-risk?
Insofar as humans care about x-risk and act on this care, you’d expect bond traders to be people who either think x-risk is very low, think it’s high and think they have no nontrivial way to affect it, or think it’s high and think trading is their best way to affect it (e.g., through earning to give).