I’m trying to make sure I understand: Is this (a more colorful version) of the same point as the OP makes at the end of “Bet on real rates rising”?
The other risk that could motivate not making this bet is the risk that the market – for some unspecified reason – never has a chance to correct, because (1) transformative AI ends up unaligned and (2) humanity’s conversion into paperclips occurs overnight. This would prevent the market from ever “waking up”.
However, to be clear, expecting this specific scenario requires both:
Buying into specific stories about how takeoff will occur: specifically, Yudkowskian foom-type scenarios with fast takeoff.
Having a lot of skepticism about the optimization forces pushing financial markets towards informational efficiency.
You should be sure that your beliefs are actually congruent with these requirements, if you want to refuse to bet that real rates will rise. Additionally, we will see that the second suggestion in this section (“impatient philanthropy”) is not affected by the possibility of foom scenarios.
I wouldn’t say that I have “a lot of” skepticism about the applicability of the EMH in this case; you only need realism to believe that the bar is above USDT and Covid, for a case where nobody ever says ‘oops’ and the market never pays out.
Not until timelines are even blatantly shorter than present and long-term loans are on offer, and not unless there’s something useful to actually do with the money.
I’m trying to make sure I understand: Is this (a more colorful version) of the same point as the OP makes at the end of “Bet on real rates rising”?
I wouldn’t say that I have “a lot of” skepticism about the applicability of the EMH in this case; you only need realism to believe that the bar is above USDT and Covid, for a case where nobody ever says ‘oops’ and the market never pays out.
What do you make of the ‘impatient philanthropy’ argument? Do you think EAs should be borrowing to spend on AI safety?
Not until timelines are even blatantly shorter than present and long-term loans are on offer, and not unless there’s something useful to actually do with the money.