On the topic of policy work in smaller countries, Founders Pledge write the following in their article about Longtermist Institutional Reform (with my emphasis added in bold):
One potential avenue to encouraging global solutions without acting directly on global institutions is to consider that some small countries can have outsized influence as role models or policy exporters. If it is easier to implement long term-focused policy in these smaller jurisdictions—and there is some evidence that this may be the case—doing so may be of large marginal value.
If accepting the assumptions above, another reason to work on policy change in smaller countries (as well) is to duplicate efforts. Significant policy change is often dependent on policy windows and luck, and the more efforts in parallell, the bigger chance of success in at least one country. Also, the risk of failure (and potentially politicizing the issue for good) is smaller if in a small country. After several parallell attempts, policy advocates in the US (or other large countries) can refer to the successful example in whatever smaller country where the campaign was successful (NZ, Australia, the Nordic countries, etc.)
Thank you Eirik. This certainly bears thinking about. At the moment I am struggling to see whether the counterarguments people raised in that thread (EG: the US federal government is more likely to follow decisions made by smaller state/local governments than overseas ones) go through or not. I ought to research this more before making my next career decision in a few months’ time!
When RyanCarey raised the issue of AI safety in that thread (and how influential smaller states would be regarding AI policy), I was interested to see Jakob respond:
’You’re right that if your main concern is linked to specific, urgent causes, you may prefer more direct routes to impact in the countries that matter most’
This sounds like me— at the moment (at least certain aspects of) longtermism seem pretty persuasive to me, as do the arguments that Ord and co. make regarding the probability of AGI happening within the next century.
Of course, it could be that I am failing to consider certain important points about Australia’s potential influence on AI development/safety.
On the topic of policy work in smaller countries, Founders Pledge write the following in their article about Longtermist Institutional Reform (with my emphasis added in bold):
Also, have a look at this blog post: Why scale is overrated: The case for increasing EA policy efforts in smaller countries—EA Forum (effectivealtruism.org).
If accepting the assumptions above, another reason to work on policy change in smaller countries (as well) is to duplicate efforts. Significant policy change is often dependent on policy windows and luck, and the more efforts in parallell, the bigger chance of success in at least one country. Also, the risk of failure (and potentially politicizing the issue for good) is smaller if in a small country. After several parallell attempts, policy advocates in the US (or other large countries) can refer to the successful example in whatever smaller country where the campaign was successful (NZ, Australia, the Nordic countries, etc.)
Thank you Eirik. This certainly bears thinking about. At the moment I am struggling to see whether the counterarguments people raised in that thread (EG: the US federal government is more likely to follow decisions made by smaller state/local governments than overseas ones) go through or not. I ought to research this more before making my next career decision in a few months’ time!
When RyanCarey raised the issue of AI safety in that thread (and how influential smaller states would be regarding AI policy), I was interested to see Jakob respond:
’You’re right that if your main concern is linked to specific, urgent causes, you may prefer more direct routes to impact in the countries that matter most’
This sounds like me— at the moment (at least certain aspects of) longtermism seem pretty persuasive to me, as do the arguments that Ord and co. make regarding the probability of AGI happening within the next century.
Of course, it could be that I am failing to consider certain important points about Australia’s potential influence on AI development/safety.