Thanks, I feel pretty safe at that! That said, it almost seems too low, like “wtf why would Russia even fire then” levels of low. So I wonder if those people are imagining better anti-missile defense than USA has (it’s designed for a rogue state like North Korea with ~20 missiles, NOT battle with the other major global nuclear power), or are now anchoring on 20%. But even if we arbitrarily raise it to say risk of hitting is 30%, it’s pretty comforting!
See also:
Thanks, I feel pretty safe at that! That said, it almost seems too low, like “wtf why would Russia even fire then” levels of low. So I wonder if those people are imagining better anti-missile defense than USA has (it’s designed for a rogue state like North Korea with ~20 missiles, NOT battle with the other major global nuclear power), or are now anchoring on 20%. But even if we arbitrarily raise it to say risk of hitting is 30%, it’s pretty comforting!