Lead developer for the EA Forum
This is over.
Temporary site update: I’ve taken down the allPosts page. It appears we have a bot hitting the page, and it’s causing the site to be slow. While I investigate, I’ve simply taken the page down. My apologies for the inconvenience.
That’s a bug, thanks for reporting.
You don’t need to use the allPosts page to get a list of all the posts. You can just ask the GraphQL API for the ids of all of them.
You picked a good one here.
How many chicken years are affected per dollar spent on broiler and cage-free campaigns.
I estimate how many chickens will be affected by corporate cage-free and broiler welfare commitments won by all charities, in all countries, during all the years between 2005 and the end of 2018. According to my estimate, for every dollar spent, 9 to 120 years of chicken life will be affected.
My impression is that cage free campaigns have been very successful and there’s much less low-hanging fruit, such that I don’t think it’s reasonable to extrapolate those results to an ongoing basis.
This is now a thing
I turned this into a non-question post for you. (Aaron didn’t know I could do that, because it’s not a normal admin option.)
Thanks! That’s very much the sort of thing that’s helpful.
Those are some pretty compelling numbers, but I’d be a lot more optimistic if they were engaged enough to show up in the comments here. (Maybe — I could imagine they’re engaged with EA ideas in other ways, but now we’re into territory where I’d feel like I’d need to do more vetting.)
Thanks Pablo and Joseph!
If you’re a person who wants to learn this material, but doesn’t have an Anki habit, I’d recommend taking this as an opportunity to try things, and give it a go. Turn remembering things into a deliberate choice.
You can get started here.
This was really good.
I will absolutely study that deck.
And VaccinateCA was very impressive.
Any mistakes are the fault of Linch Zhang
:D Good line. I hope you snuck this in and Linch didn’t notice.
Thanks for writing this! I like the aptitudes framing.
With respect to software engineering, I would add that EA orgs hiring web developers have historically had a hard time getting the same level of engineering talent as can be found at EA-adjacent AI orgs.* I have a thesis that as the EA community scales, the demand for web developers building custom tools and collaboration platforms will grow as a percentage of direct work roles. With the existing difficulty in hiring and with most EAs not viewing web development as a direct work path, I expect the shortage to continue.
Also as practical career advice, I’d recommend many people who already know how to code somewhat to try get a software engineering job at ~any tech company / startup. That company will spend months training you and the problems you’ll be solving will be much more useful for learning than the toy problems offered by a bootcamp.
* This is not so much to cast aspersions on myself and my colleagues, as to agree with the post that the level of engineering talent in AI labs is very high.
Thanks for writing this post! I’m a fan of your work and am excited for this discussion.
Here’s how I think about costs vs benefits:
I think XR reduction is at least 1000x as bad as a GCR that was guaranteed not to turn into an x-risk. The future is very long, and humanity seems able to achieve a very good one, but looks currently very vulnerable to me.
I think I can have a tractable impact on reducing that vulnerability. It doesn’t seem to me that my impact on human progress would equal my chance of saving it. Obviously that needs some fleshing out — what is my impact on x-risk, what is my impact on progress, how likely am I to have those impacts, etc. But that’s the structure of how I think about it.
After initially worrying about pascal’s mugging, I’ve come to believe that x-risk is in fact substantially more likely than 1 in several million, and whatever objections I might have to pascal’s mugging don’t really apply.
How I think about tech progress:
From an x-risk perspective, I’m pretty ambivalent about tech progress. I’ve heard arguments that it’s good, and that it’s bad, but mostly I think it’s not a very predictably-large effect on the margin.
But while I care a lot about x-risk reduction, I have different world-views that I put substantial credence in as well. And basically all of those other world-views care a whole lot about human progress. So while I don’t view human progress as the cause of my life the way I do x-risk reduction, I’m strongly in favor of more of it.
Finally, as you can imagine from my last answer, I definitely have a lot of conversations where I try to convey my optimism about technology’s ability to make lives better. And I think that’s pretty common — your blog is well-read in my circles.