Yes, it does rely on that simplified assumption. I think I’m unlikely to get more than 1 additional bit of information via further warnings after a nuke in Ukraine (if that), so staying doesn’t seem worth the risk, but if you think you get legible warning signs >84% of the time (or whatever 1 - p(nuke in Ukraine) is) then it seems worth waiting.
ETA: to clarify, my general position is that while I’m open to the possibility that there’ll be further signals which convey more bits of information about which world you’re in than the initial “nuke in Ukraine” signal, I expect those extra bits won’t do me much good because in most of those worlds events will move fast enough that I won’t be able to usefully respond. If you have a lot of weight on “escalation, if any, will be slow”, then your calculation will look different.
Yes, it does rely on that simplified assumption. I think I’m unlikely to get more than 1 additional bit of information via further warnings after a nuke in Ukraine (if that), so staying doesn’t seem worth the risk, but if you think you get legible warning signs >84% of the time (or whatever
1 - p(nuke in Ukraine)is) then it seems worth waiting.ETA: to clarify, my general position is that while I’m open to the possibility that there’ll be further signals which convey more bits of information about which world you’re in than the initial “nuke in Ukraine” signal, I expect those extra bits won’t do me much good because in most of those worlds events will move fast enough that I won’t be able to usefully respond. If you have a lot of weight on “escalation, if any, will be slow”, then your calculation will look different.