I thought this was really interesting : we should open the way to a constitutional assembly leading to the development of a federal European state
Curious to hear thoughts from other EAs about the new German administration’s appetite for a federalist Europe. I think a stronger, federalist Europe is something we should want from an EA perspective for the following reasons:
A stronger Europe increases the chance of European collective investments in AI leading to the development of “human-centric” AI
Increases the chance of a strong green European energy policy and other climate action, reducing the chance of +2 degrees scenarios
A strong federalist Europe is a good counterbalance against a market-oriented US model and the Chinese/Russian government that has a strong appetite for breaching human rights. Just as the Western model looked so aspiring for former citizens of the DDR / Soviet states at the end of the cold war, Europe could be aspiring for American, Russian and Chinese citizens. Internal pressure could lead to welfare enhancing reforms in the US, Russia and China.
Some risks I see:
A strong federalist Europe would shake up the current international order with unknown geopolitical consequences. The current world order is not perfect, but was also quite peaceful compared to the pre-1945 era.
National European governments pushing too much for quick federalist changes could cause massive internal backlash, giving room to a further rise of populism. That would increase the odds of internal European warfare, less free trade etc. with negative consequences for welfare
I am personally also very unsure of how to feel about european federalism. At this present moment it seems to me there is neither a strong political majority for further political integration, nor is there one for a significant roll-back. I expect the next years to be about management of the status-quo.
While I think that a federal EU would be desirable in principle, at the present moment the risk of backlash seems high enough to me that I don’t think EAs should invest resources into pushing for it. Although if such a push were to happen, there seem to be many opportunities in the steering of this process, as I expect it to be in large part elite-driven.
I think there are definitely some areas where further European integration is warranted and popular across most of the political spectrum. We need a common foreign policy, we need a common migration policy. Just to get these wins, the EU will have to centralize some more power. Some other things also make sense and are rather popular, like allowing paneuropean party lists at EU parliament elections.
I think over time, the direction is towards tighter integration, but this will have to follow cultural integration of the people, not precede it.
I think of federalism and further European integration as opposite ideas. More integration means moving towards having a single point of failure where we currently have 27. For instance, the commission bungled the acquisition of vaccines in 2020. Consequently, vaccination rates in the European Union lagged behind those in Britain by about one month (see this graph).
Neither do I think that joint investments in AI and climate joint require further integration, but I guess it would strengthen the European position wrt foreign policy.
I thought this was really interesting : we should open the way to a constitutional assembly leading to the development of a federal European state
Curious to hear thoughts from other EAs about the new German administration’s appetite for a federalist Europe. I think a stronger, federalist Europe is something we should want from an EA perspective for the following reasons:
A stronger Europe increases the chance of European collective investments in AI leading to the development of “human-centric” AI
Increases the chance of a strong green European energy policy and other climate action, reducing the chance of +2 degrees scenarios
A strong federalist Europe is a good counterbalance against a market-oriented US model and the Chinese/Russian government that has a strong appetite for breaching human rights. Just as the Western model looked so aspiring for former citizens of the DDR / Soviet states at the end of the cold war, Europe could be aspiring for American, Russian and Chinese citizens. Internal pressure could lead to welfare enhancing reforms in the US, Russia and China.
Some risks I see:
A strong federalist Europe would shake up the current international order with unknown geopolitical consequences. The current world order is not perfect, but was also quite peaceful compared to the pre-1945 era.
National European governments pushing too much for quick federalist changes could cause massive internal backlash, giving room to a further rise of populism. That would increase the odds of internal European warfare, less free trade etc. with negative consequences for welfare
I am personally also very unsure of how to feel about european federalism. At this present moment it seems to me there is neither a strong political majority for further political integration, nor is there one for a significant roll-back. I expect the next years to be about management of the status-quo.
While I think that a federal EU would be desirable in principle, at the present moment the risk of backlash seems high enough to me that I don’t think EAs should invest resources into pushing for it. Although if such a push were to happen, there seem to be many opportunities in the steering of this process, as I expect it to be in large part elite-driven.
I think there are definitely some areas where further European integration is warranted and popular across most of the political spectrum. We need a common foreign policy, we need a common migration policy. Just to get these wins, the EU will have to centralize some more power. Some other things also make sense and are rather popular, like allowing paneuropean party lists at EU parliament elections.
I think over time, the direction is towards tighter integration, but this will have to follow cultural integration of the people, not precede it.
I think of federalism and further European integration as opposite ideas. More integration means moving towards having a single point of failure where we currently have 27. For instance, the commission bungled the acquisition of vaccines in 2020. Consequently, vaccination rates in the European Union lagged behind those in Britain by about one month (see this graph).
Neither do I think that joint investments in AI and climate joint require further integration, but I guess it would strengthen the European position wrt foreign policy.