I’m not particularly persuaded by this post, and I think the title (“Ukraine giving—short term high leverage”) really does not accurately reflect the provided level of support/analysis or consideration of alternatives or objections. This is especially the case given the lack of support/detail/analysis regarding key estimates like “$10M for a satellite constellation” and “it would be militarily valuable.”
On a speculative, hasty note: I would suspect that if this is highly valuable and would also not be provocative, then the US/EU/etc. would already be doing something along these lines rather than focusing so much on the highly escalatory (and far more expensive?) option of providing fighter planes to Ukraine. (Yes I recognize that someone might say “but it’s private citizens instead of governments,” but the summary of my response is “it doesn’t make much difference”)
It’s fine to not (be able to) provide more support/analysis, but if you can’t then I wouldn’t recommend having such a definitive/confident title.
On the point of bureaucracies, they weren’t particularly slow when it came to (Stinger/Javelin?) missiles, and they wanted to move somewhat fast (in fact, faster than probably would have actually been possible) to provide fighter jets, although they decided against that in the end.
I’m not particularly persuaded by this post, and I think the title (“Ukraine giving—short term high leverage”) really does not accurately reflect the provided level of support/analysis or consideration of alternatives or objections. This is especially the case given the lack of support/detail/analysis regarding key estimates like “$10M for a satellite constellation” and “it would be militarily valuable.”
On a speculative, hasty note: I would suspect that if this is highly valuable and would also not be provocative, then the US/EU/etc. would already be doing something along these lines rather than focusing so much on the highly escalatory (and far more expensive?) option of providing fighter planes to Ukraine. (Yes I recognize that someone might say “but it’s private citizens instead of governments,” but the summary of my response is “it doesn’t make much difference”)
Multibillion dollar bureaucracies tent to be slow with stuff Ike this. You can call them to learn more, I don’t have all the details.
I have a full time job and can’t provide you a higher level of support/analysis without neglecting my responsibilities.
It’s fine to not (be able to) provide more support/analysis, but if you can’t then I wouldn’t recommend having such a definitive/confident title.
On the point of bureaucracies, they weren’t particularly slow when it came to (Stinger/Javelin?) missiles, and they wanted to move somewhat fast (in fact, faster than probably would have actually been possible) to provide fighter jets, although they decided against that in the end.