Does anyone have the zoom for todays event. Registered late and not sure I’ll get it.
Timothy_Liptrot
Karma: 382
[Question] How to hedge investment portfolio against AI risk?
Added an abstract
AGI Risk: How to internationally regulate industries in non-democracies
In the assassination’s problem, people manipulate the market to win bets. No one is doing that in this case.
Also, knowing when wars will happen is socially beneficial because uncertainty increases the probability of war. If both sides think they are strong, they both take strong bargaining positions. When their offers are rejected they fight. More knowledge → bargains are more likely to be accepted.
Oh god the paragraph breaks didn’t go through. Fixing!
An attempt to promote prediction markets
Bottom Of The Envelope Calculation
What’s a BOTEC
Ah, I see. I’m mixing up career capital and status actually.
Multibillion dollar bureaucracies tent to be slow with stuff Ike this. You can call them to learn more, I don’t have all the details.
I have a full time job and can’t provide you a higher level of support/analysis without neglecting my responsibilities.
We also know a lot about what types of regimes are more susceptible to democratization. A democratization effort in Vietnam is much more likely to succeed because Vietnam is a party state, has some elections, has a strongish economy, etc. I can say more about that too.
First off, remove democracy from your lexicon. It’s too complicated and confusing word, it means different things to different people. Usually if you bring democracy into this debate you get a circular answer by accidentally assuming many institutions at once.
A good starting question here is to think about the service recipients. What is the theory of change for how they compel the state to provide services under each system? What assumptions are needed for it to work?
Citizens have to coordinate to punish a leader that does not provide services if they want more services than the leader prefers to provide. So steps are:
Citizens must want services.
Citizens must find out if services are provided and if better provision is possible.
Citizens they must communicate to eachother both the information and their awareness.
Citizens they must coordinate to punish simultaneously because individually attack leaders is ineffective and punishable.
If they want to prevent leaders from counter punishing (repression), citizens must punish repression (see above steps).
Citizens must choose public goods over selling their votes.
Elections make the later steps easier by coordinating simultaneous punishments (election day). Experienced oppositions make 2 and 3 easier. If 1 or 6 are violated, you won’t get any benefit though. Also if the middle class solves this and the poor do not, guess who gets service...
The short answer is that many countries democratize but see little benefit for public service because this is a really long chain that can break down easily.
I may come back and find the studies for this stuff.
Good question. Perhaps I should clarify this in the abstract.
Weakly constrained means elite supporters cannot limite the leader much.
Personalist means weakly constrained by elite supporters. The idea is that one person has lots of power, hence personalist.
Ukraine giving—short term high leverage
[Question] Do you mean democratization or regime change?
Above is my recent article on property rights and sudden deaths of autocrats, which is not really your question. When I find time!
Yes there is a lot of work on this area. AFAIK not on health outcomes but on similar areas. If there’s interest I could do a blog post on it. https://github.com/tliptrot/Academic/raw/d4f44f249235afddbe16c67a3e6849038be22526/One Bullet Propert Rights Liptrot and Srivastava.pdf
True
I think the “for just 11 generations” thing is obviously a joke. Obviously they can’t influence the culture of their kids by that much.
Same thing with the old Epstein “impregnate 20 women in a day” thing. It’s obviously impossible.