We will be posting a follow up of Grace et al from a 2019 survey soon. Can link here once it is up. I’ll also make sure the figures for shorter years from now or lower percent probability are noted in the article somewhere.
Edit: For what it’s worth it is around 8% by 2032 in this sample.
Preprint is up and can be found here. Table S7 in the appendix may be particularly useful to answer some of the above. There will be two new surveys this year that gather new data on HLMI forecasts and the results will be out a lot faster this time round.
I think you should gather more data (e.g. via surveys) on what credences experts would assign to AGI within 10 years.
I’m not sure if I’m the best person to do this. Would be good to see AI Impacts do a follow-up to their survey of 6 years ago.
We will be posting a follow up of Grace et al from a 2019 survey soon. Can link here once it is up. I’ll also make sure the figures for shorter years from now or lower percent probability are noted in the article somewhere.
Edit: For what it’s worth it is around 8% by 2032 in this sample.
Cool, thanks!
Preprint is up and can be found here. Table S7 in the appendix may be particularly useful to answer some of the above. There will be two new surveys this year that gather new data on HLMI forecasts and the results will be out a lot faster this time round.
Thanks! Here is Table S7 (I’ve highlighted the relevant years):
I’m thinking that it would be good to have a survey with the following 2 questions:
1. Year with 10% chance of AGI.
2. P(doom|AGI in that year).