For me personally, even just granting “they were right about the trajectory of AI” is a huge update. I thought AI was a nothingburger, that the bioanchors report saying AGI would be reached by 2047 was ludicrously optimistic. Now I think I was wrong and the AI safety community was right—even pessimistic! - about AI progress. Whether they have changed all that much about AI risk is a different debate, but even if they had done nothing on that front I would be inclined to agree with Dylan.
For me personally, even just granting “they were right about the trajectory of AI” is a huge update. I thought AI was a nothingburger, that the bioanchors report saying AGI would be reached by 2047 was ludicrously optimistic. Now I think I was wrong and the AI safety community was right—even pessimistic! - about AI progress. Whether they have changed all that much about AI risk is a different debate, but even if they had done nothing on that front I would be inclined to agree with Dylan.