Feels way too overconfident. Would the cultures diverge due to communication constraints? Seems likely, though also I could imagine pathways by which it wouldn’t happen significantly, such as if a singleton was already reached.
Would technological development diverge significantly, conditional on the above? Not necessarily, imho. If we don’t have a self-sufficient colony on Mars before we reach “technological maturity” (e.g., with APM and ASI), then presumably no (tech would hardly progress further at all, then).
Would tech divergence imply each world can’t truly track whatever weapons the other world had? Again, not necessarily. Perhaps one world had better tech and could just surveil the other.
Would there be a for-sure 1st strike advantage? Again, seems debatable.
2; would this divergence become more significant over time?
(yes, as at least some of any differences will inherently be amplified by multiple factors on multiple levels of multiple types of process for multiple reasons over multiple hundreds to thousands of years, and that differences in any one planetary cultural/functional aspect tend to create and become entangled with differences in multiple other cultural/functional aspects).
3; would the degree of divergence, over time, eventually become significant—ie, in the sense that it results in some sort of 1st strike game-theory dynamic?
(yes, insofar as cultural development differences cannot not also be fully entangled with technological developmental differences).
So then the question becomes: “is it even possible to maybe somehow constrainany or all of these three process factors to at least the minimum degree necessary so as to adequately prevent that factor, and thus of the overall sequence, from occurring?”.
In regards to this last question, after a lot of varied simplifications, it becomes eventually and finally equivalent to asking: “can any type of inter-planetary linear causative process (which is itself constrained by speed-of-light latency limits) ever fully constrain (to at least the minimum degree necessary) all types of non-linear local (ie; intra-planetary) causative process?”.
And the answer to this last question is simply “no”, for basic principled reasons.
[Just commenting on the part you copied]
Feels way too overconfident. Would the cultures diverge due to communication constraints? Seems likely, though also I could imagine pathways by which it wouldn’t happen significantly, such as if a singleton was already reached.
Would technological development diverge significantly, conditional on the above? Not necessarily, imho. If we don’t have a self-sufficient colony on Mars before we reach “technological maturity” (e.g., with APM and ASI), then presumably no (tech would hardly progress further at all, then).
Would tech divergence imply each world can’t truly track whatever weapons the other world had? Again, not necessarily. Perhaps one world had better tech and could just surveil the other.
Would there be a for-sure 1st strike advantage? Again, seems debatable.
Etcetera.
Maybe there is a simpler way to state the idea:.
1; would the two (planetary) cultures diverge?
(yes, for a variety of easy reasons).
2; would this divergence become more significant over time?
(yes, as at least some of any differences will inherently be amplified by multiple factors on multiple levels of multiple types of process for multiple reasons over multiple hundreds to thousands of years, and that differences in any one planetary cultural/functional aspect tend to create and become entangled with differences in multiple other cultural/functional aspects).
3; would the degree of divergence, over time, eventually become significant—ie, in the sense that it results in some sort of 1st strike game-theory dynamic?
(yes, insofar as cultural development differences cannot not also be fully entangled with technological developmental differences).
So then the question becomes: “is it even possible to maybe somehow constrain any or all of these three process factors to at least the minimum degree necessary so as to adequately prevent that factor, and thus of the overall sequence, from occurring?”.
In regards to this last question, after a lot of varied simplifications, it becomes eventually and finally equivalent to asking: “can any type of inter-planetary linear causative process (which is itself constrained by speed-of-light latency limits) ever fully constrain (to at least the minimum degree necessary) all types of non-linear local (ie; intra-planetary) causative process?”.
And the answer to this last question is simply “no”, for basic principled reasons.
I can see how the “for sure” makes it look overconfident.
Suggest reading the linked-to post. That addresses most of your questions.
As to your idea of having some artificial super-intelligent singleton lead to some kind of alignment between or technological maturity of both planetary cultures, if that’s what you meant, please see here: https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xp6n2MG5vQkPpFEBH/the-control-problem-unsolved-or-unsolvable