The compilation of p(doom) estimates is interesting, thanks for putting that together! I initially didn’t realize that some of those are on the older side—several being from a couple of years ago, and the Sanders / Bostrom one being from 2008. I think it would be good to flag that these aren’t all recent estimates.
The compilation of p(doom) estimates is interesting, thanks for putting that together! I initially didn’t realize that some of those are on the older side—several being from a couple of years ago, and the Sanders / Bostrom one being from 2008. I think it would be good to flag that these aren’t all recent estimates.
Thank you for pointing it out! This is now mentioned before the list and maybe we’ll add the years individually if we get the time.