A note on leverage: One clear difference between AI and non-leverage-able things like wheels or steam engines is that there are many different ways to build AI.
Someone who tried to create a triangular wheel wouldn’t have gotten far, but it seems plausible that many different kinds of AI system could become very powerful, with no particular kind of system “guaranteed” to arise even if it happens to be the most effective kind—there are switching costs and market factors and branding to consider. (I assume that switching between AI systems/paradigms for a project will be harder than switching between models of steam engine).
This makes me think that it is possible, at least in principle, for our actions now to influence what future AI systems look like.
A note on leverage: One clear difference between AI and non-leverage-able things like wheels or steam engines is that there are many different ways to build AI.
Someone who tried to create a triangular wheel wouldn’t have gotten far, but it seems plausible that many different kinds of AI system could become very powerful, with no particular kind of system “guaranteed” to arise even if it happens to be the most effective kind—there are switching costs and market factors and branding to consider. (I assume that switching between AI systems/paradigms for a project will be harder than switching between models of steam engine).
This makes me think that it is possible, at least in principle, for our actions now to influence what future AI systems look like.