Verbalising the distinctions between 1 − 5 was something I was struggling with, so thanks for putting it so concisely and comprehensively. I agree with all the points you have made and the clarification at the end, which is what I was trying to say in a jumbled up way.
My impression on tipping point sensitivity was based on specific events happening significantly ahead of projections from modelling. I will have a read through the linked paper suggesting tipping points aren’t as bad as thought and comment on your linked post from March if necessary, but otherwise will update based on that.
I also agree that while the expected temperature trajectory is moderating (as well as the risk of higher trajectories), we may be underestimating the “political climate sensitivity” which is a function of the risks you provided in Figure 4 rather than warming, and which appear to be getting worse. I also don’t think great power conflict is significantly exacerbated by these indirect effects until much higher warming but Israel / Arab world and Pakistan / India are a couple of conflicts I think could be worsened and would still be of global concern, despite not being between Great Powers.
I agree with you that the biggest uncertainty right now is on “how does warming and its impact translate into societal consequences?” and I would be keen for anyone reducing the uncertainty there.
As I also discussed in the podcast, I think the biggest indirect longtermist risk from climate likely stems from a situation where non-great-power conflicts made more likely through climate become more catastrophic (e.g. through more distributed bio WMDs).
Verbalising the distinctions between 1 − 5 was something I was struggling with, so thanks for putting it so concisely and comprehensively. I agree with all the points you have made and the clarification at the end, which is what I was trying to say in a jumbled up way.
My impression on tipping point sensitivity was based on specific events happening significantly ahead of projections from modelling. I will have a read through the linked paper suggesting tipping points aren’t as bad as thought and comment on your linked post from March if necessary, but otherwise will update based on that.
I also agree that while the expected temperature trajectory is moderating (as well as the risk of higher trajectories), we may be underestimating the “political climate sensitivity” which is a function of the risks you provided in Figure 4 rather than warming, and which appear to be getting worse. I also don’t think great power conflict is significantly exacerbated by these indirect effects until much higher warming but Israel / Arab world and Pakistan / India are a couple of conflicts I think could be worsened and would still be of global concern, despite not being between Great Powers.
I haven’t done a deep dive on it but my reading has leant towards political instability being very sensitive to increases in risks, risks which are plausible at temperatures expected in the next 30 years. That being said, the frequent example of the Syria drought-conflict could be the wrong narrative in favour of unsustainable agricultural policies. So I think I need to investigate more.
Thanks for the discussion!
Thank you!
I agree with you that the biggest uncertainty right now is on “how does warming and its impact translate into societal consequences?” and I would be keen for anyone reducing the uncertainty there.
As I also discussed in the podcast, I think the biggest indirect longtermist risk from climate likely stems from a situation where non-great-power conflicts made more likely through climate become more catastrophic (e.g. through more distributed bio WMDs).