It could be that the AI can achieve much more of their objectives if it takes over (violently or non-violently) than it can achieve by playing by the rules.
Sure, that could be true, but I don’t see why it would be true. In the human world, it isn’t true that you can usually get what you want more easily by force. For example, the United States seems better off trading with small nations for their resources than attempting to invade and occupy them, even from a self-interested perspective.
More generally, war is costly, even between entities with very different levels of power. The fact that one entity is very powerful compared to another doesn’t imply that force or coercion is beneficial in expectation; it merely implies that such a strategy is feasible.
Sure, that could be true, but I don’t see why it would be true. In the human world, it isn’t true that you can usually get what you want more easily by force. For example, the United States seems better off trading with small nations for their resources than attempting to invade and occupy them, even from a self-interested perspective.
More generally, war is costly, even between entities with very different levels of power. The fact that one entity is very powerful compared to another doesn’t imply that force or coercion is beneficial in expectation; it merely implies that such a strategy is feasible.
See here for some earlier discussion of whether violent takeover is likely. (For third parties to view, Matthew was in this discussion.)