I would go further and say it’s pretty clear that my even if the movement like you say put it’s weight behind the election, it would almost certainly have made no difference.
But even if it had a very small change of swaying the outcome it could have been worth it in EV terms of course.
I agree, but personally I would put this in Pascalls mugging territory of tiny chances. I’m aware everyone’s “Pascalls threshold” is different.
It’s not even clear to me that EA trying to change the election would be positive EV. Look at what’s happened with AI.
I would go further and say it’s pretty clear that my even if the movement like you say put it’s weight behind the election, it would almost certainly have made no difference.
But even if it had a very small change of swaying the outcome it could have been worth it in EV terms of course.
I agree, but personally I would put this in Pascalls mugging territory of tiny chances. I’m aware everyone’s “Pascalls threshold” is different.
It’s not even clear to me that EA trying to change the election would be positive EV. Look at what’s happened with AI.