Do you think 1% is very useful in practise? That seems very high to me and I would have thought by that stage we would know through other means already? Or is the plan to lower the threshold as the tech improves and aim for something lower?
I agree 1% high, and I wish it were lower. On the other hand, we’re specifically targeting stealth pathogens: ones where any distinctive symptoms come well after someone becomes contagious. Absent a monitoring system, you could be in a situation most people had been infected before anyone noticed there was something spreading. Flagging this sort of pathogen at 1% cumulative incidence still gives some time for rapid mitigations, though it’s definitely too late to nip it in the bud.
Do you think 1% is very useful in practise? That seems very high to me and I would have thought by that stage we would know through other means already? Or is the plan to lower the threshold as the tech improves and aim for something lower?
I agree 1% high, and I wish it were lower. On the other hand, we’re specifically targeting stealth pathogens: ones where any distinctive symptoms come well after someone becomes contagious. Absent a monitoring system, you could be in a situation most people had been infected before anyone noticed there was something spreading. Flagging this sort of pathogen at 1% cumulative incidence still gives some time for rapid mitigations, though it’s definitely too late to nip it in the bud.