Ted Sanders comments on Transformative AGI by 2043 is <1% likely

Ted Sanders 6 Jun 2023 16:54 UTC
5 points
1 ∶ 2
“If you disagree with our admittedly imperfect guesses, we kindly ask that you supply your own preferred probabilities (or framework modifications).”
Three questions for you that would help us improve our model:
- What important error do you think is made by our model?
- What modification would you propose to address the error?
- What impact do you think your modification would have on the resultant forecast?
- Prometheus 7 Jun 2023 13:53 UTC
  2 points
  0 ∶ 0
  Parent
  I think he’s asking if your margin of error is >.01
  - Ted Sanders 7 Jun 2023 15:53 UTC
    4 points
    0 ∶ 1
    Parent
    What is a margin of error, here, exactly?
    The event will either happen (1) or not (0). The 0.4% already reflects our uncertainty. In general, I don’t think it makes mathematical sense to discuss probabilities of probabilities.*
    
    *although of course it can make sense to describe sensitivities of probabilities to new information coming in