I don’t know exactly how you’d operationalize an AI bubble. If OpenAI were a public company, you could say its stock price goes down a certain amount. But private companies can control their own valuation (or the public perception of it) to a certain extent, e.g. by not raising more money so their last known valuation is still from their most recent funding round.
Many public companies like Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia are involved in the AI investment boom, so their stocks can be taken into consideration. You can also look at the level of investment and data centre construction.
I don’t think it would be that hard to come up with reasonable resolution criteria, it’s just that this is of course always a nitpicky thing with forecasting and I haven’t spent any time on it yet.
Oh, sure. People will keep using LLMs.
I don’t know exactly how you’d operationalize an AI bubble. If OpenAI were a public company, you could say its stock price goes down a certain amount. But private companies can control their own valuation (or the public perception of it) to a certain extent, e.g. by not raising more money so their last known valuation is still from their most recent funding round.
Many public companies like Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia are involved in the AI investment boom, so their stocks can be taken into consideration. You can also look at the level of investment and data centre construction.
I don’t think it would be that hard to come up with reasonable resolution criteria, it’s just that this is of course always a nitpicky thing with forecasting and I haven’t spent any time on it yet.