What is the probability that the U.S. AI industry (including OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft, Google, and others) is in a financial bubble — as determined by multiple reliable sources such as The Wall Street Journal, the Financial Times, or The Economist — that will pop before January 1, 2031?
My leading view is that there will be some sort of bubble pop, but with people still using genAI tools to some degree afterwards (like how people kept using the internet after the dot com burst).
Still major uncertainty on my part because I don’t know much about financial markets, and am still highly uncertain about the level where AI progress fully stalls.
I just realized the way this poll is set up is really confusing. You’re currently at “50% 100% probability”, which when you look at it on the number line looks like 75%. Not the best tool to use for such a poll, I guess!
I don’t know exactly how you’d operationalize an AI bubble. If OpenAI were a public company, you could say its stock price goes down a certain amount. But private companies can control their own valuation (or the public perception of it) to a certain extent, e.g. by not raising more money so their last known valuation is still from their most recent funding round.
Many public companies like Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia are involved in the AI investment boom, so their stocks can be taken into consideration. You can also look at the level of investment and data centre construction.
I don’t think it would be that hard to come up with reasonable resolution criteria, it’s just that this is of course always a nitpicky thing with forecasting and I haven’t spent any time on it yet.
My leading view is that there will be some sort of bubble pop, but with people still using genAI tools to some degree afterwards (like how people kept using the internet after the dot com burst).
Still major uncertainty on my part because I don’t know much about financial markets, and am still highly uncertain about the level where AI progress fully stalls.
I just realized the way this poll is set up is really confusing. You’re currently at “50% 100% probability”, which when you look at it on the number line looks like 75%. Not the best tool to use for such a poll, I guess!
Oh, sure. People will keep using LLMs.
I don’t know exactly how you’d operationalize an AI bubble. If OpenAI were a public company, you could say its stock price goes down a certain amount. But private companies can control their own valuation (or the public perception of it) to a certain extent, e.g. by not raising more money so their last known valuation is still from their most recent funding round.
Many public companies like Microsoft, Google, and Nvidia are involved in the AI investment boom, so their stocks can be taken into consideration. You can also look at the level of investment and data centre construction.
I don’t think it would be that hard to come up with reasonable resolution criteria, it’s just that this is of course always a nitpicky thing with forecasting and I haven’t spent any time on it yet.