It is uncertain whether SBF intentionally committed fraud, or just made a mistake, but people seem to be reacting as if thetakeawayfromthis is that fraud is bad.
Just because you feel uncertain doesn’t mean the appropriate epistemic state for everyone to be in is to be uncertain too. You have to be pretty confident that you’ve researched all the available information if you’re going to tell others that they’re prematurely coming to conclusions. Sometimes it really is possible to tell with high confidence whether fraud was committed or not (in some way or another), even if the details aren’t out. I think this is one such instance.
(I wouldn’t immediately trust anything I read on the topic since things are evolving quickly, but there’s also a complete lack of exonerating information or theories about how it wasn’t fraud. Also some insiders have appeared on streams by now and I haven’t seen anyone defend FTX leadership so far.)
Just because you feel uncertain doesn’t mean the appropriate epistemic state for everyone to be in is to be uncertain too. You have to be pretty confident that you’ve researched all the available information if you’re going to tell others that they’re prematurely coming to conclusions. Sometimes it really is possible to tell with high confidence whether fraud was committed or not (in some way or another), even if the details aren’t out. I think this is one such instance.
For instance, were you aware of this WSJ article linked in this tweet: https://twitter.com/AutismCapital/status/1591454455203262467
(I wouldn’t immediately trust anything I read on the topic since things are evolving quickly, but there’s also a complete lack of exonerating information or theories about how it wasn’t fraud. Also some insiders have appeared on streams by now and I haven’t seen anyone defend FTX leadership so far.)