Isn’t this an example of the unilateralist’s curse? If every EA independently decides whether to slide into his DMs, the people who decide to do so will be those who are overconfident in their persuasion abilities.
The risk here is that someone will give him a negative first impression of EA. People don’t change their minds nearly as much as they should, so first impressions matter a lot. Any below-99th-percentile attempt to reach out to multimillionaires could have very negative expected utility.
That said, I’m not sure this argument is correct, so I’d appreciate criticism.
Isn’t this an example of the unilateralist’s curse? If every EA independently decides whether to slide into his DMs, the people who decide to do so will be those who are overconfident in their persuasion abilities.
The risk here is that someone will give him a negative first impression of EA. People don’t change their minds nearly as much as they should, so first impressions matter a lot. Any below-99th-percentile attempt to reach out to multimillionaires could have very negative expected utility.
That said, I’m not sure this argument is correct, so I’d appreciate criticism.