A more proactive stance seems appropriate here. Missler didn’t say “please don’t contact me,” and has been open about his win on social media, so inquiries to see if he’s aware of EA seem worth it. (It takes about 3 minutes to find & message them on facebook; payoff is a small chance of creating another value-aligned multimillionaire funder.)
Isn’t this an example of the unilateralist’s curse? If every EA independently decides whether to slide into his DMs, the people who decide to do so will be those who are overconfident in their persuasion abilities.
The risk here is that someone will give him a negative first impression of EA. People don’t change their minds nearly as much as they should, so first impressions matter a lot. Any below-99th-percentile attempt to reach out to multimillionaires could have very negative expected utility.
That said, I’m not sure this argument is correct, so I’d appreciate criticism.
You might as well randomly go through the list of multimillionaires/billionaires and cold-call them. Maybe not the worst idea, but there’s nothing in particular to suggest this guy would be special.
A more proactive stance seems appropriate here. Missler didn’t say “please don’t contact me,” and has been open about his win on social media, so inquiries to see if he’s aware of EA seem worth it. (It takes about 3 minutes to find & message them on facebook; payoff is a small chance of creating another value-aligned multimillionaire funder.)
Isn’t this an example of the unilateralist’s curse? If every EA independently decides whether to slide into his DMs, the people who decide to do so will be those who are overconfident in their persuasion abilities.
The risk here is that someone will give him a negative first impression of EA. People don’t change their minds nearly as much as they should, so first impressions matter a lot. Any below-99th-percentile attempt to reach out to multimillionaires could have very negative expected utility.
That said, I’m not sure this argument is correct, so I’d appreciate criticism.
You might as well randomly go through the list of multimillionaires/billionaires and cold-call them. Maybe not the worst idea, but there’s nothing in particular to suggest this guy would be special.
That seems like not a bad idea, though probably not very tractable.
A couple things stand out here as special:
Missler suddenly came into a windfall, so probably is under a house money effect.
He’s very young, so probably doesn’t yet have a calcified theory about how to do good.
He’s easy to contact (you can just shoot him a DM on facebook), which isn’t true for most ultra-high-net-worth individuals.