Remember that AGI is a pretty vague term by itself, and some people are forecasting on the specific definition under the Metaculus questions. This matters because those definitions don’t require anything inherently transformative like us being able to automate all labour, or scientific research. Rather they involve a bunch of technical benchmarks that aren’t that important on their own, which are being presumed to correlate with the transformative stuff we actually care about.
Remember that AGI is a pretty vague term by itself, and some people are forecasting on the specific definition under the Metaculus questions. This matters because those definitions don’t require anything inherently transformative like us being able to automate all labour, or scientific research. Rather they involve a bunch of technical benchmarks that aren’t that important on their own, which are being presumed to correlate with the transformative stuff we actually care about.