Metaculus Predicts Weak AGI in 2 Years and AGI in 10

Just a quick update on predicted timelines. Obviously, there’s no guarantee that Metaculus is 100% reliable + you should look at other sources as well, but I find this concerning.

Weak AGI is now predicted in a little over two years:


AGI predicted in about 10: https://​​​​questions/​​5121/​​date-of-artificial-general-intelligence/​​

Also, these are predicted dates until these systems publicly known, not the date until they exist. Things are getting crazy.

Even though Eliezer claims that there was no fire alarm for AGI, perhaps this is the fire alarm?

Crossposted to LessWrong (29 points, 14 comments)