What I mean is “these forecasts give no more information than flipping a coin to decide whether AGI would come in time period A vs. time period B”.
I have my own, rough, inside views about if and when AGI will come and what it would be able to do, and I don’t find it helpful to quantify them into a specific probability distribution. And there’s no “default distribution” here that I can think of either.
What I mean is “these forecasts give no more information than flipping a coin to decide whether AGI would come in time period A vs. time period B”.
I have my own, rough, inside views about if and when AGI will come and what it would be able to do, and I don’t find it helpful to quantify them into a specific probability distribution. And there’s no “default distribution” here that I can think of either.