There will be no AGI in the next 10 years. There will be an AI bubble over the next couple of years as new applications for deep learning proliferate, creating a massive hype cycle similar to the dot-com boom.
This bubble will die down or burst when people realize the limitations of deep learning in domains that lack gargantuan datasets. It will fail to take hold in domains where errors cause serious damage (see the unexpected difficulty of self-driving cars). Like with the burst of the dot-com bubble, people will continue to use AI a lot for the applications that it is actually good at.
If AGI does occur, it will be decades away at least, and require further conceptual breakthroughs and/​or several orders of magnitude higher computing power.
Might as well make an alternate prediction here:
There will be no AGI in the next 10 years. There will be an AI bubble over the next couple of years as new applications for deep learning proliferate, creating a massive hype cycle similar to the dot-com boom.
This bubble will die down or burst when people realize the limitations of deep learning in domains that lack gargantuan datasets. It will fail to take hold in domains where errors cause serious damage (see the unexpected difficulty of self-driving cars). Like with the burst of the dot-com bubble, people will continue to use AI a lot for the applications that it is actually good at.
If AGI does occur, it will be decades away at least, and require further conceptual breakthroughs and/​or several orders of magnitude higher computing power.