This could be correct but is so speculative and so many steps removed from the present that I give it very little weight. There are so many assumptions at play here. I think most of these assumptions are more likely than not, but with those probabilities multiplied together the whole scenario becomes less likely. Here are just a few potential ones.
1. More humans will always = more productive person-years. There are lots of war / resource shortage /climate change scenarios 2. We will invent cultured meat that everyone switches to. 3. AI just increases progress and doesn’t take the world in weird directions 4. More people reduces X-risk?
This could be correct but is so speculative and so many steps removed from the present that I give it very little weight. There are so many assumptions at play here. I think most of these assumptions are more likely than not, but with those probabilities multiplied together the whole scenario becomes less likely. Here are just a few potential ones.
1. More humans will always = more productive person-years. There are lots of war / resource shortage /climate change scenarios
2. We will invent cultured meat that everyone switches to.
3. AI just increases progress and doesn’t take the world in weird directions
4. More people reduces X-risk?