Sorry, I wasn’t very clear on the first point: There isn’t a ‘correct’ prior.
In our context (by context I mean both the small number of observations and the implicit hypotheses that we’re trying to differentiate between), the prior has a large enough weight that it affects the eventual result in a way that makes the method unhelpful.
This reminds me of the discussion around the Hinge of History Hypothesis (and the subsequent discussion of Rob Wiblin and Will Macaskill).
I’m not sure that I understand the first point. What sort of prior would be supported by this view?
The second point I definitely agree with, and the general point of being extra careful about how to use priors :)
Sorry, I wasn’t very clear on the first point: There isn’t a ‘correct’ prior.
In our context (by context I mean both the small number of observations and the implicit hypotheses that we’re trying to differentiate between), the prior has a large enough weight that it affects the eventual result in a way that makes the method unhelpful.