There have been a couple of studies showing that families with kids emit more than those without. Including this one from Sweden, where they emit 25 percent more.
That graph just shows that IF we manage to get emissions to plummet late in the century then a difference of 15 percent in population by 2100 might not make much of a difference to climate change. That’s fine but there are many assumptions there.
I don’t think having a few less people changes the game in climate change, but nor do I think it’s very bad in other ways either.
I’m not sure that empirical data point about families is as telling as you think it is. Emissions are tied to total economic production. If total economic production doesn’t go up, its hard to see how emissions go up much. The story by which an extra baby causes more economic production has to run through something like a demand-constrained economy (eg we’re in a recession where more demand really does translate to more production).
In reality my best guess is that total production is ~unchanged when a new baby is born (or maybe even falls a bit, if a parent pulls back from the labor force), which means the additional purchases of a household with a baby are offset by slightly fewer purchases elsewhere in the economy. (Obviously once that baby is old enough to themselves work, that does increase production and emissions).
There have been a couple of studies showing that families with kids emit more than those without. Including this one from Sweden, where they emit 25 percent more.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/04/200415152921.htm
That graph just shows that IF we manage to get emissions to plummet late in the century then a difference of 15 percent in population by 2100 might not make much of a difference to climate change. That’s fine but there are many assumptions there.
I don’t think having a few less people changes the game in climate change, but nor do I think it’s very bad in other ways either.
I’m not sure that empirical data point about families is as telling as you think it is. Emissions are tied to total economic production. If total economic production doesn’t go up, its hard to see how emissions go up much. The story by which an extra baby causes more economic production has to run through something like a demand-constrained economy (eg we’re in a recession where more demand really does translate to more production).
In reality my best guess is that total production is ~unchanged when a new baby is born (or maybe even falls a bit, if a parent pulls back from the labor force), which means the additional purchases of a household with a baby are offset by slightly fewer purchases elsewhere in the economy. (Obviously once that baby is old enough to themselves work, that does increase production and emissions).