Some people believe that, while depopulation is bad, we’re not at crunch time yet, so we can reverse it later. I worry that this under-estimates the extent of positive feedback loops. It seems to me that, as birth rates have fallen, policy and culture have become less supportive of parenting, which in turn makes parenthood less attractive. I worry that voters are not forward looking enough to recognize that, even though they may not have children at the moment, it is nonetheless good for the future for parenthood to be supported.
Some examples of anti-parenthood policies and cultural memes:
Large transfers from young to old (e.g. unfunded state pensions).
NIMBYism increasing the cost of additional bedrooms.
Couples are the decision maker for reproductive choice, bear most of the costs of having children (both financial and opportunity cost) but few of the benefits (most go to the child or to the taxpayer).
High prestige given to education and career success, low or negative given to parenthood.
High risk aversion about children (CPS, car seats, stranger danger, etc.)
Age stratification, media representation and fewer cousins reducing social salience of babies for young couples.
Sex education and family planning focused on avoiding pregnancy, not on actually having families.
Exclusion of families from recreational activities.
Lack of support for young parents in education.
In general I expect falling birth rates to make most of these factors worse through de-normalisation of parenthood and reducing the young parent influence base, further reducing birth rates, absent some major change.
Some people believe that, while depopulation is bad, we’re not at crunch time yet, so we can reverse it later. I worry that this under-estimates the extent of positive feedback loops. It seems to me that, as birth rates have fallen, policy and culture have become less supportive of parenting, which in turn makes parenthood less attractive. I worry that voters are not forward looking enough to recognize that, even though they may not have children at the moment, it is nonetheless good for the future for parenthood to be supported.
Some examples of anti-parenthood policies and cultural memes:
Large transfers from young to old (e.g. unfunded state pensions).
NIMBYism increasing the cost of additional bedrooms.
Couples are the decision maker for reproductive choice, bear most of the costs of having children (both financial and opportunity cost) but few of the benefits (most go to the child or to the taxpayer).
High prestige given to education and career success, low or negative given to parenthood.
High risk aversion about children (CPS, car seats, stranger danger, etc.)
Age stratification, media representation and fewer cousins reducing social salience of babies for young couples.
Sex education and family planning focused on avoiding pregnancy, not on actually having families.
Exclusion of families from recreational activities.
Lack of support for young parents in education.
In general I expect falling birth rates to make most of these factors worse through de-normalisation of parenthood and reducing the young parent influence base, further reducing birth rates, absent some major change.