I had two follow-up questions: first, do you think there is a big difference in impact between getting a tenure-track position at a top-20 school vs medium-ranked school?
I would guess medium-big, especially if your route to impact is teaching PhD students (or anything that requires a lot of funding), as opposed to governmental advising (or anything that doesn’t).
Secondly, why do you think switching subjects reduces those odds a lot? Do you think it’s because it’s unlikely that I would get accepted into a PhD program in AI or because, even if I’m accepted, I’m less likely to get a tenure-track position in this field?
We won’t really know until we see someone study the question. My guess is that for most switchers, the PhD program would be worse than the current one (AI is more competitive than econ, and age works against you), and so due to that, they would likely end up in a worse tenure track position. Plus the impact is delayed and some of it foreclosed by retirement. So the cost seems decent-sized.
I would guess medium-big, especially if your route to impact is teaching PhD students (or anything that requires a lot of funding), as opposed to governmental advising (or anything that doesn’t).
We won’t really know until we see someone study the question. My guess is that for most switchers, the PhD program would be worse than the current one (AI is more competitive than econ, and age works against you), and so due to that, they would likely end up in a worse tenure track position. Plus the impact is delayed and some of it foreclosed by retirement. So the cost seems decent-sized.