Thanks for sharing your experience and thanks your comment! This is very useful!
For most people in a PhD in any long-term relevant subject (econ, biology, AI, stats), with a chance of a tenure-track position at a top-20 (worldwide) school, I expect it will make sense to push for that for at least ~3 years, and to postpone worries about pivoting until after that. Because switching subjects reduces those odds a lot.
I had two follow-up questions: first, do you think there is a big difference in impact between getting a tenure-track position at a top-20 school vs medium-ranked school? If so, where does the difference come from?
Secondly, why do you think switching subjects reduces those odds a lot? Do you think it’s because it’s unlikely that I would get accepted into a PhD program in AI or because, even if I’m accepted, I’m less likely to get a tenure-track position in this field?
I had two follow-up questions: first, do you think there is a big difference in impact between getting a tenure-track position at a top-20 school vs medium-ranked school?
I would guess medium-big, especially if your route to impact is teaching PhD students (or anything that requires a lot of funding), as opposed to governmental advising (or anything that doesn’t).
Secondly, why do you think switching subjects reduces those odds a lot? Do you think it’s because it’s unlikely that I would get accepted into a PhD program in AI or because, even if I’m accepted, I’m less likely to get a tenure-track position in this field?
We won’t really know until we see someone study the question. My guess is that for most switchers, the PhD program would be worse than the current one (AI is more competitive than econ, and age works against you), and so due to that, they would likely end up in a worse tenure track position. Plus the impact is delayed and some of it foreclosed by retirement. So the cost seems decent-sized.
Thanks for sharing your experience and thanks your comment! This is very useful!
I had two follow-up questions: first, do you think there is a big difference in impact between getting a tenure-track position at a top-20 school vs medium-ranked school? If so, where does the difference come from?
Secondly, why do you think switching subjects reduces those odds a lot? Do you think it’s because it’s unlikely that I would get accepted into a PhD program in AI or because, even if I’m accepted, I’m less likely to get a tenure-track position in this field?
I would guess medium-big, especially if your route to impact is teaching PhD students (or anything that requires a lot of funding), as opposed to governmental advising (or anything that doesn’t).
We won’t really know until we see someone study the question. My guess is that for most switchers, the PhD program would be worse than the current one (AI is more competitive than econ, and age works against you), and so due to that, they would likely end up in a worse tenure track position. Plus the impact is delayed and some of it foreclosed by retirement. So the cost seems decent-sized.